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Firms like CoreLogic, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Zillow are all still forecasting positive home price growth over the coming year.

Let’s be clear: There’s no consensus when it comes to 2023 housing forecasts. And I think that’s an interesting thing that is now starting to surprise a lot of people,” Rick Palacios Jr., head of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune. “Our view is that you will see-and we’re seeing it right now-home prices will fall even though supply levels are not ripping higher. As we speak, the economic shock from higher mortgage rates continues to chip away at some of the gains made this spring. Why? This summer, around two-thirds of the nation’s largest housing markets saw home values slip in the face of spiking mortgage rates. In fact, over the next three months (see map above), Zillow predicts that home values will fall in 552 markets. While Zillow predicts that home values in most markets will tick up over the coming 12 months, it doesn’t think much growth will come in the remaining months of 2022. That’s down from the 2.4% it forecasted a month earlier, and down from the 7.8% it forecasted back in July.Īnd while Zillow expects national home price growth to decelerate to 1.4%, it will vary significantly by market. This week Zillow revised its 12-month outlook and now predicts that U.S. From land speculation in New York state after the Revolutionary War, to a huge bubble in Chicago in the 1830s, to our 21st century bubble, the United States has always been a nation of real. However, we’ve yet to see a research firm predict a nationwide housing crash-something industry insiders say would require a peak-to-trough decline greater than 20%. housing market-something both the National Association of Home Builders and National Association of Realtors call a “housing recession”-does have analysts downgrading their 2023 home price forecasts.

On a year-over-year basis, existing home sales and new home sales are down 20.2% and 29.6%, respectively. Just as in 1981, we are seeing spiking mortgage rates push the U.S. Fast-forward to 2022, where the Fed’s ongoing inflation fight once again has folks questioning if a housing crash is just around the corner.